Donald Trump is doing 6 points worse than he did 4 years ago with a key demographic

Donald Trump is gearing up for a tough battle this November as voters head to the polls for the 2024 presidential election. With Kamala Harris stepping into the ring instead of a faltering Joe Biden, Trump faces an uphill struggle to secure a crucial demographic: white women.

Recent data shows Trump is losing ground with this group, trailing six points in October 2024 compared to November 2020. CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten highlighted that Trump’s margin has plummeted from a seven-point lead to just one, indicating a growing support for Harris among white women.

While it might seem surprising that this demographic is so vital to Trump—especially given his history of groping accusations and documented misogyny—it’s essential for his campaign. Although he still holds a slight lead among white women, his advantage is rapidly shrinking with only three weeks until the election.

In 2016, 47 percent of white women voted for Trump, compared to 45 percent for Hillary Clinton, according to the Pew Research Center. This demographic was notably more supportive of Trump than non-white women, contributing significantly to his overall success—39 percent of all women supported him.

CNN’s analysis breaks down the likely share of votes in the upcoming election: white women make up 36 percent of the electorate, white men 34 percent, women of color 16 percent, and men of color 15 percent. As Enten pointed out, white women represent a plurality of voters, making their opinions crucial in the election.

The shifts in white women’s support can be attributed to several factors. Trump faced numerous allegations of sexual misconduct back in 2016, but the political landscape has changed significantly since then. Recent threats to safe and legal abortion in various states, coupled with Harris being a female candidate, are likely influencing this demographic.

Abortion has emerged as a key voting issue in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where more than 80 percent of voters are white. In these states, around 27 percent of women identified abortion as their top voting concern, compared to just 7 percent of men.

Enten noted that since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, white women in suburban areas of these battleground states have increasingly turned against Republicans. Additionally, Harris’s moderate stance may attract swing voters looking for a centrist option.

These statistics come at a challenging time for Trump. Recently, he went viral for an awkward performance at a Pennsylvania rally, where he spent nearly half an hour dancing on stage while the audience looked on, puzzled. If he continues to raise concerns in key states, he might see his support dwindle even further.

With Trump’s lead shrinking and Harris gaining traction, the upcoming weeks will be critical for his campaign as he tries to maintain his footing with this important voter base.