A Dwayne Johnson ‘paycheck’ movie with a $200M budget is already destined to fail

The upcoming holiday film Red One, starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans, is shaping up to be the quintessential “paycheck movie”—a project that actors take on more for the payday than the artistic merit. With a hefty budget of $253 million, it’s reportedly tracking to gross only around $36 million at the box office. Given these figures, it’s easy to see why many are anticipating a spectacular flop.

The Premise

The film revolves around an unusually muscular Santa Claus who gets kidnapped, with Johnson playing Santa’s assistant. Chris Evans enters the fray as a “level four naughty lister,” which, believe it or not, is an actual line from the movie. This combination of a whimsical premise and a massive budget raises eyebrows, especially considering the critiques that have emerged following the trailers.

Financial Backstory

Red One’s excessive budget has sparked curiosity. Historically, holiday-themed films tend to be more modestly budgeted, making this instance particularly striking. Reports suggest that Johnson’s reputation for tardiness and absence on set contributed significantly to the rising production costs, allegedly costing the film an additional $50 million due to delays. An article from The Wrap highlights that Johnson’s consistent late arrivals—averaging about eight hours late—and sometimes outright no-shows led to the runaway costs.

Expectations and Critiques

The movie has been described in not-so-flattering terms, including being called an “unmitigated disaster” and compared to “ChatGPT’s idea of what a commercial, four-quadrant film should be.” Reactions to the trailers reflect this skepticism, with many viewers expressing disbelief that a Christmas film could warrant such a monumental budget. Comments from users on social media echo this sentiment, questioning how a holiday movie could have a higher budget than all four original Transformers films combined.

Dwayne Johnson’s Track Record

Johnson isn’t a stranger to box office disappointments. His recent film, Black Adam, which had a budget of around $200 million, needed to earn about $600 million to break even but fell significantly short. This history casts a shadow over Red One’s prospects for success.

Despite the grim forecasts, the idea of a holiday action-comedy featuring Santa in a less-than-traditional role is intriguing, if not downright entertaining in a train-wreck sort of way. Even if it doesn’t perform well financially, audiences might still find value in its sheer absurdity, making it a spectacle worth watching—even if only for the novelty. As the film’s release date approaches, many will be keeping an eye on its performance, curious to see if it truly lives up to the hype or flops spectacularly.